Sunday, October 4, 2009

Kona

Excitement...

Kona is coming and I am majorly pumped because it is probably the best field the event has seen in history. There are probably 10 men who all have legitimate shots at the overall. No way of predicting this race but I'd like to toss out a couple names that have been of particular interest to me and could do damage.

Ronnie Schildknect- After a ridiculous bike run combo that left him in forth by seconds to Rutger Beke, he knows that he lost the race on the swim. Biking in isolation much of the day had to have made an impact on his swim training. Look for him to hang on in the chase pack and be in the hunt on the run.

Andy Potts- After a crash in Chicago, his name dropped from the contenders list. I don't think potts will have a problem. Huge performance last year in first Ironman on almost no specific training. People also forget his drafting penalty last year. Look for him to lead from the gun and dictate the first half of the bike. The run will be a shoot out and potts will be there late.


Usual suspects-
Macca, Llanos, and Crowie

Macca- ridiculous racing this year, but my I think he may have overcooked it with too much variety, racing, and travel in his lead up. Also, a damaging Ironman Germany took him very deep. My favorite athlete and I hope he smashes everyone but I am concerned.

Llanos- People say he lacks the head to win... great performer in the heat can never be overlooked. Also took it incredibly deep in Ironman Germany

Crowie- Sharp in the majority of his races. Smacked Macca early in the year. No ironmans and very stable year. Can he be the first to defend since Tim Deboom? My gut says yeah, looking at the field, probably not.



The record will fall this year... The swim will be faster than ever with ITU guys (bozzone, henning, and potts pushing)

The bike will see lieto, stadler and new man 20 yr old phillip graves pushing hard.

The run will have a pack of brilliant foot speed come into t2 together (llanos, beke, macca, crowie, henning, potts, schildknect, bracht)

people will be shelled by mile 10 as Macca will take it out very hard- llanos doesn't have the speed to hang but will stay steady to finish 3rd, beke will fall off, and bracht will let them run away.

Henning's inexperience will show, Bracht and Schildknect will fade.

Macca will pop from pushing too hard too early.

Crowie and Potts will kill each other. Potts wins with surge in the last 2 miles.

Potts will split 48, 4:30, and 2:43 for roughly an 8:06

Women? Chrissie and she'll destory the record and will terrify the mens pro field.

3 comments:

Bogie said...

Don't leave out Linsey Corbin as she will be hunting for 1st this year...

Wil said...

You have been a bloggy little bee! Kona will be sweet, can't wait to see you there what... next year? Two tops?? :)

Rural Girl said...

I love Andy Potts; what CUTE dimples!
And Linsey Corbin; but who couldn't love her? Salt of the earth, Montana girl. Woo Hoo!