Wednesday, October 6, 2010


Kona… I love it so much. To me it is the combination of the Super Bowl and the birth of a child. Nothing makes me more excited. I have three people to watch. My good training buddy, Anthony Barton, is ready to go. Teammate Michelle is carrying a load of fitness from Placid. Kyle Visin, a guy who has been helping me train for Ironman, is poised to run the fastest amateur marathon… He ran a 3:02 in Arizona!

The pro race is going to be incredible too. It will be fireworks big time and not like normal fireworks. Disney world fireworks. Things that blow up into a sparkly Mickey Mouse head or the Disney Castle. Exceptional. Here are my picks.


It will take an act of God to stop Chrissie. Even that may not be enough (she lost something like 15 minutes with flats 2 yrs ago)... With an 8:19 at Challenge Roth (running a 2:48) she will absolutely kill everyone. It’s not even worth really discussing anyone else but Mirinda Carfrae and Tereza Marcel are again on great form. Julie Dibens will lead the race and maybe for a long while, but she can’t match Chrissie’s or Mirinda’s pace for a marathon even if she were running a 10k. No chance. Chrissie takes it lowering her course record again.


Completely wide open. The easy pic is Crowie and he is coming in with a perfect fitness and peaking better than last year. I don't buy that he has a weak bike but honestly I don’t think he has the fastest marathon (see Macca’s 2:42 and 2:45) in the field. Raelart and Henning were impressive with huge wins in Germany this yr. Macca and Stadler have been completely overlooked. Here’s my take… Crowie loses out. Raelart runs a 2:44 to win if it is warm. He was a few cups of Gatorade away from winning his first one and was pinning Crowie for a good while. Macca will surprise people and will win if it is cool. His race schedule was super light and his marathon is still the best in the field... including Crowie. Henning can’t close the race but will be in the hunt. Despite running and training like hell, Lieto still can’t win the race but will be involved late in the game again. You have to be a mongrel to win here and the only people who can win this race up top are Macca, Crowie, and Raelart. Forget Llanos, Stadler, Henning, Bozzone, Bockel, Beke, Potts, Bracht, and Lieto because they don’t have the mental goods to win in this field. You can’t rely on others making mistakes in this year’s race... As an aside, Fraser Cartmell will be in the top 10 in his first go.

The race also coincides with my last huge workout of the year before IM florida. 4hrs on the bike and a 13 mile run all at race pace... all my training days have been rungs on the ladder leading up to this. I have had a huge IM build that I am really confident in. This is the icing on the cake. Once I am done, I am glued to the computer to watch some red, shiney Mickey Mouse heads blow up.


Marv said...

I also thought Macca was overlooked pre-race. Reading all the pre-race hype, I kept wondering; is Macca hurt or something? Do they think he is too old? No, that couldn't be.
I was happy to see him at the front of the reace but and eventually pull out a gut check to win.


Mary Lou said...

too bad Chrissie had to withdraw from the race, but Mirinda's race was exciting, and Julie left it all on the course. It was fun to hear your excitement about the men's race, wish I could've watched that last mile and a half.